3Q Wealth

RBI Maintains Status Quo: Highlights from the Monetary Policy Announcement

8th February, 2024

Summary: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently announced its decision to keep key policy rates unchanged. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das highlighted some important points:
• Repo Rate Unchanged: The MPC decided to maintain the repo rate at 6.5 percent.
• Economic Update: Governor Das mentioned robust economic activity, a decrease in CPI inflation, and the resilience of the services sector. The government is focused on fiscal consolidation, and the agricultural sector is performing well despite challenges.
• Growth Forecast: Real GDP growth for FY25 is projected at 7 percent, with quarterly growth rates ranging from 6.8 to 7.2 percent. For the current year, 2023-2024, the projected CPI inflation rate stands at 5.4%, with Q4 projection at 5%. Looking ahead to FY25, the projected inflation rate is estimated to be 4.5%
• Liquidity Measures: While systemic liquidity has shifted to a deficit, liquidity in the banking system remains surplus. The Indian rupee’s exchange rate is market-driven and stable despite global economic conditions.
• Retail and MSME Loans: Banks are required to provide Key Fact Statements to enhance transparency for retail and MSME loans.
• Digital Transactions: A framework for authenticating digital payment transactions has been introduced to improve security.
• Review of ETP Framework: The RBI will review the framework for electronic trading platforms to adapt to market developments.
• Macroeconomic Stability: Proactive policies have maintained and strengthened macroeconomic and financial stability.
• Paytm Regulatory Action: Regulatory action against Paytm Payments Bank aims to address persistent non-compliance and protect consumer interests.
Overall, these updates reflect the RBI’s cautious approach, prioritizing stability, transparency, and responsiveness to changing economic conditions and market dynamics.

Market Reaction

BSE Sensex tumbled 700 points while Nifty fell nearly 1 percent, dragged by banking stocks. PSU Banks were the clear outliers, with the PSU Bank index up over 3%, Whereas the laggards came from Auto’s FMCG & private banks which caused the drag.
• The Indian rupee held stronger than 83 per USD, remaining close to the two-week high of 82.95. The yield on the 10-year Indian government bond was little changed around 7%